For Chávez, Still More Discontent

Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, who enjoys more domestic power and higher international name recognition than any other president of a Latin American democracy, is now facing serious political troubles. Since mid-2007, the Chávez administration has been beset by street protests, electoral setbacks, and economic woes that amount to a second wave of discontent. The first wave, when critics passionately protested in the streets between 2001 and 2004, almost brought down the government. This second wave is less threatening, but it may nonetheless lead to turmoil. Venezuelan politics in the past year and a half has undergone a substantial shift in power asymmetry. Power asymmetry is the difference in power between two power holders—in this case, between the ruling party and the largest opposition forces. Between 2004 and 2008, Venezuela’s power asymmetry became excessively large, with government forces gaining near-monopoly control of state institutions and seeking to achieve similar asymmetries across other societal institutions. This wide asymmetry caused an erosion of democracy because the executive branch was essentially able to govern unimpeded. However, with the pivotal regional elections of November 2008, this asymmetry shrank. The elections marked the opposition’s first electoral inroads since 1998, and the reduction in power asymmetry may pave the way for a democratic opening . . . or not. It may lead to more chaos. Much will depend on how the government responds.